Karl Rove: Can Republicans Retake the Senate in 2010? – WSJ.com

OPINION DECEMBER 10, 2009, 11:39 A.M. ET

Can Republicans Retake the Senate in 2010?

Probably not, but their candidate recruitment so far has been stellar.

By KARL ROVE

Democrats began the year as masters of the political universe, winning the White House and increasing their majorities in Congress. But the year is ending badly for them. Their top initiative, health care, is deeply unpopular. Congress’s approval rating is 26%, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s is 28%, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s is an anemic 14%.

Political currents are running against the party of Barack Obama. Democrats now trail Republicans by four points in Gallup’s generic ballot poll. In 1994, the year the GOP took control of Congress, it wasn’t until March that Republicans took the lead in that poll—and then only by one point and for a short period of time.

With a good environment this election cycle, Republicans have recruited competitive candidates who could turn otherwise close contests into runaway victories, likely defeats into wins or at least close contests that, if things break right, tip to the GOP.

Today, there are only 40 Republicans in the Senate. In January 2011, there could be 44, 46 or more if the party runs strong campaigns in contests that haven’t jelled yet, or if some Democrats retire instead of risking defeat.

One feature giving Republicans an edge is that several senate seats are up for grabs because the politicians who were elected to fill them are now serving in the Obama administration. This includes seats formerly held by Mr. Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

Rep. Mark Kirk is a strong candidate to pick up Mr. Obama’s old seat in Illinois. Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former governor, could pick up Mr. Biden’s former seat in Delaware. In New York, Democrats will try to defend Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s old seat by rallying behind Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, but she is vulnerable to a strong Republican challenge.

via Karl Rove: CanRepublicans Retake the Senate in 2010? – WSJ.com.