COOK REPORT – Adding Up The Democratic Math – National Journal Magazine

COOK REPORT

Adding Up The Democratic Math

A LOOK AT THE CASE MADE BY TOP DEM STRATEGISTS THAT THEY’LL KEEP THEIR HOUSE MAJORITY.

by Charlie Cook

Saturday, July 24, 2010

This column has repeatedly — some would say relentlessly — argued since late last summer that Democrats are in real danger of losing their House majority in November. So it’s only fair to analyze why top Democratic strategists, in an admittedly bad year for their party, think they still have a good chance to retain their hold on the chamber, albeit with greatly reduced numbers.

First, they figure they will pick up four seats held by Republicans. These include Michael Castle’s at-large seat in Delaware and Mark Kirk’s 10th District seat in Illinois (both men are running for the Senate). The strategists also believe they can defeat two incumbents in overwhelmingly Democratic districts: Joseph Cao in Louisiana’s 2nd District and Charles Djou in Hawaii’s 1st. They think a couple of other seats are vulnerable, including Dan Lungren’s in California’s 3rd and Charlie Dent’s in Pennsylvania’s 15th, but the first four are clearly their best shots. If Democrats can win that quartet, Republicans would have to grab 43 seats held by Democrats to score a net gain of 39, the number they need to claim the barest majority of 218-217.

Party strategists say Democratic incumbents will be able to use their financial advantages to set the terms of their races.

via National Journal Magazine – Adding Up The Democratic Math.